农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论方法与应用

【目的】农产品供给与需求的准确分析测定,是农业监测预警能力提升的重要表现。构建产品多品种多环节模型集群理论方法,可高效解决单一环节或单一模型难以解决的分析技术难题。【方法】在农产品供需的重要要素即生产量、消费量、贸易量、价格等分析预测过程中,针对农产品品种间关联性强,自然、社会、经济诸多影响因素纠缠,模型多变量强耦合、非线性、参数时变的特点,提出多品种农产品“因素分类解耦、参数转用适配”方法,以构建多时空维度的监测预警模型集群。【结果】利用“因素分类解耦、参数转用适配”技术方法,研究构建了不同农产品的生产类、消费类、贸易类、价格类的模型集群。这些模型集群可用于对不同时空维度的水稻、玉米、小麦、肉类等主要农产品供需的长中短期的分析预测,支撑形成了农业展望中的主要农产品平衡表,其中主要农产品全国年度生产量6年平均预测精度高于97%。【结论】研究提出的农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论及其方法,有效提升了农产品多品种模型集群的求解效率和准确率,增强了农产品供需分析预测的系统性与智能性,为系统揭示农产品复杂的时空供需变化特征、促进农产品市场调控科学性和可预见性,提供了新技术方法。     

4种荒漠植物种子出苗和幼苗生长对沙埋深度的响应

通过室内试验测定了黑果枸杞、沙冬青、沙蒿、霸王4种荒漠植物的种子生理特征以及沙埋深度（0、1、2、3、4、5 cm）对4种荒漠植物种子出苗及幼苗生长的影响。结果表明，体积较大的沙冬青和霸王种子萌发率与其重量、含水量、形状及活性间存在正相关关系；体积较小的黑果枸杞、沙蒿萌发率与种子重量、含水量、形状之间为正相关关系，与种子活性负相关。随着沙埋深度增加，4种植物种子出苗率下降、首次出苗时间延迟，茎高、绝对株高和根长及根冠比总体呈先增大后减小的趋势；幼苗生长方面，黑果枸杞和沙蒿分别适宜于1～2、0～1 cm的浅层沙埋，均在沙埋深度5 cm时种子几乎不萌发；沙冬青、霸王则适宜于3～4 cm较深层沙埋，在沙埋0 cm时均不萌发。此外，在荒漠区采用这4种植物进行植被恢复时，除考虑种子自身性状外，还应充分考虑当地的沙埋、降雨等条件，以提高出苗率、增大幼苗定植率。     

Micropropagation of Prunus scoparia,a Suitable Rootstock for Almond under Drought Conditions

Prunus scoparia is a wild deciduous shrub, usually living on dry calcareous soils of the rocky mountains and has been used as a grafting rootstock for domesticated almonds to provide drought resistance. In the current study, micropropagation ability of P. scoparia was investigated using cytokinin and auxin. Uniform nodal shoot pieces (3–5 cm in length) of seedlings were used as explants. The explants were disinfected with 10% sodium hypochlorite solution. For adventitious shoot induction and proliferation, Murashige and Skoog (MS) media containing 7.00 g/l agar and 30.00 g/l sucrose containing five concentrations of benzyl adenine (BA) (0.00, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 mg/1) and also containing six concentrations of Thidiazuron (TDZ) (0.00, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, 5.00, and 7.00 mg/1) were compared. For rooting, in vitro shoots (2–3 cm) were transferred into ½ MS medium supplemented with 30 g/l sucrose, 7.50 g/l agar, and different concentrations of IBA (0.00, 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 mg/l) and NAA (0.00, 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 mg/l). Based on the results obtained for shoot proliferation, only 2.00 and 4.00 mg/l BA and 2.00 mg/l TDZ concentrations generated shoots, while other treatments did not show shoot proliferation. Among the three treatments that generated shoots, the best results for shoot number, leaf number, and leaf color quality were observed in media containing 2.00 mg/l TDZ. Based on the results obtained for rooting, the effect of IBA concentrations on the rooting percentage, root number, and root length was significant. Among IBA concentrations, only 0.50 mg/l IBA induced rooting, while there was no rooting in the media containing other IBA concentrations. None of the NAA concentrations showed rooting. In conclusion, MS culture medium supplemented with 2.00 mg/l TDZ and ½ MS culture medium supplemented with 0.50 mg/l IBA are suggested for in vitro shoot proliferation and rooting of P. scoparia, respectively. The results presented herein could be used for in vitro selection and micropropagation of P. scoparia.     

极小种群野生植物八蕊单室茱萸的种群状况研究

八蕊单室茱萸为云南省特有的极小种群野生植物和濒危物种。通过查阅相关文献并结合访问调查,确定八蕊单室茱萸可能分布的区域,开展种群资源调查。结果显示:八蕊单室茱萸目前仅在普洱市和西双版纳州有10个天然种群,其种群规模已低于最小可存活种群,属极小种群野生植物和濒危物种,亟需开展保护工作。生境破坏和生境片段化是导致八蕊单室茱单室茱萸濒危的人为因素。提出收集种质资源、营建和管护近地保护种群、建立迁地和回归种群等保育建议。     

陕西不同地区马铃薯腐烂茎线虫的分离鉴定及同源性分析

旨在鉴定陕西不同地区马铃薯腐烂茎线虫生物型,为其防治提供理论依据。对陕西不同地区马铃薯腐烂茎线虫进行分离,对其形态进行观察并测量特征值,通过茎线虫线粒体COⅠ通用引物、ITS区通用引物及A、 B生物型的特异性引物对不同地区采集马铃薯腐烂茎线虫进行PCR检测及序列分析,利用MEGA6.0进行系统发育树构建及种群同源性分析。结果表明,陕北地区腐烂茎线虫的生物型为B型,关中地区为A型。形态特征值数据显示雌成虫体长、体宽均大于雄成虫,A型的体长、体宽均大于B型。系统发育树结果显示,陕北不同地区的B型马铃薯腐烂茎线虫聚为一支,合阳、兴平的A型马铃薯腐烂茎线虫聚为一支,与分子鉴定结果相一致。     

Effect of Foliar GA3 and ABA Applications on Reactive Oxygen Metabolism in Black Currants (Ribes nigrum L.) During Bud Para-dormancy and Secondary Bud Burst

The secondary bud burst can cause around 10％-20％ yield losses in black currants, an economically important crop in parts of Europe, Asia and North America. The metabolism of reactive oxygen species (ROS) has been linked to bud dormancy and its early release (secondary bud burst) in several fruit crops. But the relationship between ROS metabolism and the secondary bud burst is still not well understood in black currants. In the present study, two black currant cultivars (Adelinia and Heifeng) with opposing tendency of exhibiting the secondary bud burst were sprayed with abscisic acid (ABA) and gibberellic acid (GA3) to either inhibit or induce the secondary bud burst. The results showed that ABA inhibited the secondary bud burst by reducing the contents of ROS (H2O2, O2-?) in buds; decreasing the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD) and catalase (CAT); and increasing the contents of oxidized glutathione (GSSG) and ascorbic acid (AsA). GA3 effectively induced the secondary bud burst by increasing ROS contents; increasing the activities of several antioxidant enzymes, such as SOD, POD, CAT, glutathione reductase (GR), ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and the contents of reduced glutathione (GSH); and decreasing the contents of AsA. The experimental results showed that GA3 treatment increased the content of ROS, accelerated the metabolism of reactive oxygen species, and promoted the second burst of black currants. However, ROS metabolism was at a low level under ABA treatment, and the buds remained dormant. These results suggested that ROS metabolism might play an important role in the two black currants of the secondary bud burst.     

Examining horizontal and vertical social ties to achieve social–ecological fit in an emerging marine reserve network

1. Most MPA networks are designed only with ecological processes in mind to increase their conservation utility. However, since MPA networks often involve large geographic areas, they also affect and involve multiple actors, institutions, and policy sectors.
2. A key challenge when establishing an effective MPA network is to align the ‘social system’ with the biophysical MPA network (the ‘ecological system’). This challenge is often denoted as ‘social–ecological fit’.
3. Facilitating collaborative social interactions among various actors and stakeholders (social connectivity) is equally as important as accomplishing ecological connectivity. New analytical approaches are required to effectively examine this ‘social’ dimension of fit.
4. An emerging marine reserve network in Jamaica and the recent invasion of Indo‐Pacific lionfish are used as a case study to: (1) examine the extent to which horizontal and vertical social ties bring local and national actors together to collaborate, coordinate, and share knowledge; and (2) assess the extent to which different attributes and features of such multilevel social networks may enhance or inhibit particular aspects of social–ecological fit.
5. Findings suggest that multilevel linkages have played the greatest role in relation to enhancing fit in the marine reserve network in the context of the recent lionfish invasion. However, the long‐term propensity of the multi‐actor and multilevel networks to enhance social–ecological fit is uncertain given the prevalence of weak social ties, lack of a culture of information sharing and collaboration, and limited financial resources.

     

Characterization of the trade in manta and devil ray gill plates in China and South‐east Asia through trader surveys

1. Dried gill plates from manta and devil rays, some of the world's most biologically vulnerable fishes, have become a valued commodity in Asian dried‐seafood and traditional Chinese medicine markets. This trade is a primary driver of fisheries, which have led to declines in many mobulid populations.
2. With no reliable trade statistics and scarce data on mobulid fisheries, this study estimates the number and species of mobulids required to supply this trade, and investigates the consumers and suppliers involved and drivers of demand. Following preliminary market research, 525 trader surveys were conducted in Hong Kong, Singapore, Macau, Taiwan, and southern China.
3. Guangzhou, China was identified as the centre of the trade accounting for 99% of total estimated market volume of 60.5 tons of dried gill plates in 2011, increasing to 120.5 tons by 2013. The estimated number of mobulids converted from tons of gill plates more than doubled over the period to 130 000, comprising 96% devil rays, Mobula japanica, Mobula thurstoni, and Mobula tarapacana, and 4% Manta spp. By 2015 the Guangzhou market had declined sharply, reportedly due to conservation campaigns and government policies. However Hong Kong's gill plate sales increased dramatically between 2011 and 2015.
4. China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and India were reported most frequently as gill plate sources.
5. Vendors recommend gill plates (trade name pengyusai) for ailments ranging from acne to cancer and as a general health tonic. While pengyusai is a new addition to traditional Chinese medicine literature and is rarely prescribed by traditional medicine practitioners, it is readily available over the counter and aggressively marketed by vendors.
6. Working in concert with consumer demand reduction efforts, increased measures to restrict mobulid fisheries and trade are recommended to prevent further population declines of these highly vulnerable species.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring tropical fisheries through fishers’ perceptions: Fishing down the food web in the Tonlé Sap,Cambodia

Tropical fisheries are among the most productive fisheries in the world, often providing the primary source of protein for the local population. Despite their importance, data on these systems are relatively limited, thus hampering management and policy development. Here, the implications of increasing fishing pressure are explored by critically evaluating the perceptions of the fishers who rely on these ecosystems to survive. A total of 169 fishers in 26 different fish‐dependent communities in the Tonlé Sap Lake, Cambodia, were surveyed to understand their perceptions of the impact that fishing has had on the ecosystem. The Tonlé Sap is one of the largest, yet poorest studied, freshwater fisheries in the world. Consistent with “fishing down the food web” theory of fisheries, survey data revealed that although fishers observed the total size of fish catch remaining consistent over recent years there has been a drastic decline in the size of individual fish, as well as a reduction in the diversity of species caught. These perceptions are examined with reference to food web theories that explore how fishing pressure leads to ecosystem change, including the more recent “indiscriminate fisheries” theory.